Year 4: ~1.53% and Beating the Odds

"In the back of my mind, I can never forget this could be gone tomorrow - and at this point I think the odds are against me... the chances of succeeding in this business are slim to none; there's only a handful of people that have long careers. You have to put in the work, you can never be satisfied, never take it for granted."

- Zac Efron


Coaches who have ever spent any amount of time looking for a job (i.e. all of them), know just how hard it is to get in the door, but many of them know it is equally as hard to keep that door open. I'm not a big Zac Efron fan, as I'm not a 14-year-old girl, but the quote makes a lot of sense with regards to coaching, as I'm sure it does in many other walks of life as well. 

My first two job searches were long, drawn out events that made me intolerable to be around. Rejection after rejection, many times having nothing to do with qualifications or a good fit. So this spring I decided I wouldn't actively chase jobs. If a school approached me, I would listen, and then weigh my options. Even coming off of a disappointing season, I was comfortable making a return to Emory & Henry. I love the players there, I loved the people I worked with, it was close to home, and I truly feel they can win there. Our head coach stepped down, and I applied for the head coaching position, knowing it to be a long shot. I made the initial cut from over 100 down to 30, and I'm unsure where I stood on that list, but I did not wind up getting the job...not totally unsuspected.

During the waiting period on that job, though, I was contacted by a college to come in and interview. They had heard about me from two different sources and wanted to bring me in. I went in for the interview, I liked the head coach, the area seemed nice, I was enjoying myself. Towards the end of the interview, however, the coach decided to explain to me just how hard it was to make it in this business. He basically urged me to get out while I still could. The scary thing was he actually made some compelling arguments. 

I left the interview feeling uneasy, but saw that I had a voicemail. The message was from a different school wanting me to interview. This school, Guilford College, had been a school I really liked while getting to know the schools in our conference. Guilford has been to 2 Final Fours in the last 7 years. They have had 2 National Players of the Year. They have sent multiple players overseas to play professionally, and even had one player who had a tryout with the Los Angeles Lakers and is still currently in the NBA Developmental League. It is a great program in a city environment (Greensboro, NC), that is also home to four other colleges/universities. I can be surrounded by people my age, in a city environment while winning games at a high level...oh, and it pays more than my previous job? Yeah...I want this job.

I go into the interview hoping to impress. I find out I like the people I would be working with, and really like the area. I am unsure of their interest in me, however, as many people would like to have this job. I leave the interview to head back home not knowing how things would turn out. As I'm sitting in my car, plugging my home address into my GPS, I get a tap on my window. It is coach Palombo, the head coach, and he asks me to think about accepting the position on my way home. I was floored. It is a three-and-a-half hour drive home. I only took one hour of that to call my inner circle before accepting the job. My "search" was done...in May, no less!

I've had a great summer recruiting for Guilford, but that experience will be for my next blog. For now, I wanted to concentrate on beating the odds...

One of the questions I get asked a lot in interviews is, "where do you see yourself in (x amount of) years?" My reply is always some variation of being on a staff at the Division 1 level. The subsequent question is always, "why Division 1?" That question is a little tougher, but my answer is that I want to compete at the highest level, and for college basketball, Division 1 is the king of the mountain.

I'm not alone in this dream. Many others just like me have the same dream. They work hard, they network, just like me. They've tried to put themselves in a position to succeed and move to the next level, just like me. So what sets apart those who are at the D1 level from those wishing to get there? Well, outside of more experience being at that level, not much really.

Now, I'm not naive enough to think that if a kid named Mike Krzyzewski Jr. wanted to be a coach, that he would have the same amount of odds as Joe Normalguy. This is seen in the fact that Richard Pitino Jr. went from Manager to Head Coach at the D1 level in 7 years. That just won't ever happen for ol' Joe.

So some have greater odds than others, but for the majority of coaches in this business, it all comes down to a lucky break, and then how you've prepared yourself for that break, and/or your ability to put yourself in positions where lucky breaks are more likely to happen.

Thinking on this, I decided to do a little research in May on what exactly the odds are that I'll end up as an assistant at the D1 level as well as a head coach. It should be noted that many of the statistics needed to get an exact number are not available to me, so I will do my best to try and note where I've taken some liberty with what the correct statistic would be. Regardless, the number won't be too far off from what it would be if the statistics were available.

So here are some concrete statistics:

There are 340 Division 1 schools.
There are 312 Division 2 schools.
There are 442 Division 3 schools.
There are 251 NAIA schools.
There are 444 (recognized) Junior College schools.

Each of these schools has exactly 1 Head Coach, so there are 1,789 coaches at least who are potentially looking to be Division 1 HC's or trying to keep their current HC job.

Division 1 schools typically have 3 assistant coaches and a Director of Basketball Operations. Some schools have Directors of Player Personnel and things of that nature but they are much harder to track. So for the sake of being fair to poorer schools, I will say Division 1 has an average of 3.5 "non-head-coach coaches" per school. At 340 schools, this means there are 1,190 assistant positions available at the D1 level, and 1,530 positions when you include head coaches.

Division 2 schools average about 3 coaches on their basketball staff including head coaches.
Division 3, NAIA and Junior College schools average about 2.5 coaches on their basketball staff including head coaches. 

Most Division 1, and some lower level schools have Graduate Assistants and Managers. Some of them only want school paid for and do not have the desire to become a coach, but many do, so this number will skew the results as it would be impossible to figure out how many of them want to move up.

If you were to take the positions available from all of these levels, this would give you a pool of  11,917 coaches for 340 coaching jobs as a Head Coach and 1,530 total at the Division 1 level. This leaves the percentages from that fact alone at:

Odds to become a Division 1 Head Coach: 1 out of 35 (2.85%)
Odds to become a Division 1 Assistant Coach: 1 out of 8 (12.5%)

Then you add in that it will take the typical coach around 10 years to become qualified for a head coaching position and by then you have added ~10,093 more graduate assistants and managers to the pool, while the current ones have moved up a level as well.

This number would push the percentages down to:

Assistant Coach: 1 out of 14 (7%)
Head Coach: 1 out of 65 (1.53%)

So there it is...all things equal, I have a 1.53% chance of becoming a Division 1 Head Coach. There are things I have in my corner that push that percentage up a little (I've had 6 years of experience and contacts at the Division 1 level already), but that is a pretty good estimate. None of this takes into account the number of high school coaches, AAU coaches and people who work with recruiting services who are trying to get their foot in the door as well.

Some sobering statistics:

Odds of dying of heart disease: 1 in 5 (20%)
Odds of dying of cancer: 1 in 7 (14.2%)
Odds of dying of a stroke: 1 in 23 (4.3%)
Odds of it raining today: 1 in 2 (50%) 
Odds of Alex Rodriguez taking steroids: 2 in 1 (200%)

It should be noted that I have a higher chance of dying of a cancerous stroke than I do of becoming a Head Coach at the Division 1 level. I bring this up not to say that I have given up on the dream, or that others should give up (though, that would increase my chances... #GiveUp), but rather to show you just how big of an accomplishment it is for those who have made it to that level, and how much of a thrill it will be when I finally make it myself.

Statistics many times give us better understanding of things that we can't easily comprehend. But statistics can be deceiving, especially when all the facts aren't readily available. But what were the chances that VCU makes a run from barely making the NCAA Tournament all the way to the Final Four? Florida Gulf Coast? Norfolk State? Odds are stacked against people all the time, not just in sports. You just have to find a way to curb the odds in your favor until you catch a break.

Overwhelming odds happen all the time in our daily lives. It's why Zac Efron's quote rings true for many professions, not just the entertainment business. But he's right, you can never take it for granted, you can never relax. There are always going to be a new crop of workers looking to knock you off of your spot.

For these reasons, a Zac Efron quote is relevant in an article about coaching basketball...and what are the odds of that?

Year 3: My First Final Four

Atlanta, Georgia....my favorite city!

Back in April, I decided to make the trek down to Georgia to take part in the NCAA Final Four festivities. As a coach, being at the final four is a big deal socially and professionally. The National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) holds their annual meetings during the weekend of the final four, so that comes with all kinds of meetings, seminars, and social events tailored to coaches. The biggest part in landing a job in the coaching field is your connections with your peers. These connections go a long way toward getting your foot in the door all the way to landing the job outright. With over 3,000 coaches in town for the festivities, the weekend is a must for those serious about advancing in the business.

The events begin on Thursday, and conclude with the national championship game the following Monday. I arrived Thursday evening with a "Young Coaches Social" at a local bar set to begin at 6:30. The weekend didn't start off as planned, as it was 6:15 and I was still sitting in traffic, a couple exits away from my hotel. I decided to call a cab service to have them meet me at my hotel and take me to the event.

Months prior to the event, my fellow assistant at Emory & Henry made the reservations for the hotel I would be staying in for the weekend. I had no clue what to expect, other than knowing it wasn't in the best of regions within the city. I arrived at the hotel at 6:35, parked my car and ran inside to check in. My plan was to throw my things in my room and meet the cab in the parking lot. The cab was already in the lot by the time I arrived and I asked him to wait for me for 10 minutes as I checked in.

I walk in the door, and a ragged-looking lady and a guy wearing all Jordan gear from head to toe are standing in line in front of me. The Jordan-clad man was growing restless with how long the clerk was taking to service them, so he started demanding his ID. Confused, I looked at the sign above the (assumingly bullet-proof) window that read "if you are a guest of a tenant, please leave your ID at the front desk." At this point, I knew I was in trouble.

A lady, who I can assure you wasn't in any danger of winning beauty pageants, stumbles out from behind a metal door, passing between myself and the mystery couple, almost falling out of the hotel front door. I don't have many options at this point, changing hotels certainly isn't one. It's final four weekend and every hotel has been booked solid for months. I'm also growing later for the social event I was scheduled to attend. Begrudgingly, I tell myself I won't be in the room much anyway, check in, throw my things in my room (smallest, most run-down room I've ever come across), and head out. On my way out, I'm walking down the halls and notice many of the doors on the hall are cracked enough to take a good look inside. I notice that in each of them there is either a woman, or a couple, laying on the bed, looking straight at the door. Only some of the rooms had the small, box television turned on, others just waited for "clients."

I finally get out of Hotel California only to find my cabbie has left me. Not wanting to go back into Hotel Rwanda, I decide to walk to the street corner to call the cab service again. While I'm on the phone, a dark red lowrider drives up beside me. The window rolls down and a guy with long dreadlocks starts to yell to me...

"Hey Buddy!!"

I don't acknowledge the guy, I'm clearly on the phone bro...

"Hey BUDDY!!"

I turn turn to him, give him a heads up, then go back to my phone conversation...

"Hey Buddy, you got a minute?!"

I finally ask him what's up, his response was "Ay man, where's your truck at? I got your stuff." I assure him I'm not who he thinks I am and go back to my conversation yet again. He drives off and I hang up, another cab on the way in 7 minutes. It's 6:48 and I'm very late.

Not 2 minutes after I hang up, another ragged lady comes by and asks me if I'm trying to buy. Not a fan of her sales pitch, I tell her no thanks. She leaves, making way for a couple walking in the opposite direction to approach me. The woman talks to her "man," and says "I bet THIS guy would like some." Now while they may fall for that pitch on the tv show Shark Tank, I wasn't intrigued.

7 minutes and I'm propositioned for drugs/sex 3 times...

Lowrider pulls back up, now with a passenger..."hey buddy! you sure you ain't want his stuff anyway?"

"I'm good..."

Make that 4 times...

The cab finally comes, drives me to the event, I have some much-needed drinks and an hour later I grab my things out of the hotel and beg my cousin to stay at her place (DURING the week of her wedding). Fortunately she's a saint and didn't mind to take me in, without even offering me a bump of cocaine.

I head back out downtown, determined to network and have a good time. I head to a couple bars with coaching friends and wind up having a good time. Despite the rough start, the rest of the weekend goes great.

Some highlights:

Attending some seminars/panels with many interesting coaches and new technology to help coaches

Dinner with alumni of coaching staff of Emory & Henry years past who have moved on to other schools

Concerts in the park (Zac Brown Band, Dave Matthews, Flo-Rida, Ludacris, Macklemore, Muse)

Division II and Division III final four

All of this while catching up with friends in and out of the coaching business, making some new contacts and having a great time. Unlike everyone else, on Monday as they were leaving to return home, I was staying in town for my cousin/concierge's wedding the following weekend. It was during this time that I got a chance to go play golf in Peachtree City, Georgia with my cousin's fiancee and his friends. By "play golf" I mean that we played best-ball and we used like 3 of my putts. Otherwise I spent 4 hours hitting boomerangs disguised as golf balls.

But easily the highlight of my time in Atlanta came when a college friend of mine caught up with me and asked me if I wanted to go to an Atlanta Hawks event. He is a season ticket holder, and they were having a function for the ticket holders at the arena. I got to shoot around on the court and take part in some skills events. I won the contests for Knockout and Free Throws, and came in second during the skills challenge. For my effort, they gave me two signed basketballs by Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia. Afterwards we got a free dinner in the clubhouse and some party gifts, a good time was had by all.

For the sake of my family, I should probably say the highlight was my cousin's wedding (it was actually fun)...so yeah, it was my cousin's wedding...

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Not bad for my first final four. Next year is in Dallas, Texas and I plan on being a little more prepared (and booking my OWN hotel). It's a great event, even if you aren't a basketball fan. If you can get tickets, I would highly recommend attending one. And if you can't get tickets, just become a college coach and get them for free!

Year 3: Adversity

Adversity is a mirror. Adversity has a way of letting you know exactly who you are. It reminds you what needs to be changed, removed and retooled. You can’t hide from adversity, it will find you in all aspects of life, not just on the basketball court. Adversity in basketball is most well-recognized on the court, during gameday. Everyone gets to see the struggle each team faces to win the game. But adversity can affect the game before it even happens.

A coach has many responsibilities, and if you have read my blog before, this isn’t a new concept. But sometimes these responsibilities pop up without any ability to prepare for them.

When I first started my new job in September, we had 20 players. Division III allows 18 players on a roster once practice begins, so we knew we would have to cut two of them anyway. The very first day on my job, one of our top players was dismissed from school due to a legal issue. Soon after, another top player from the previous season decided not to return due to health issues. After that, the hits kept coming…

Knee injury to our most talented player, played in 2 games all year…

Player quits due to personal issues…

Player transfers to be closer to family/home…

Player quits due to playing time…

Another casualty due to playing time…

Player transfers for a career opportunity in another field…

3 players booted for violation of team rules…

We gained a player in December who had sat out the first semester due to academic issues, but the damage was done, we were down to 11 players. One of the players had actually quit, then came back when there was more playing time available.

So…

Adversity…

It’s easy to look from the outside at our 4-21 record and think we’re one of the worst programs in the country, but you’d be wrong. This is a team who has faced more adversity than any other I’ve ever been a part of. Those who stayed didn’t ask for this situation. They didn’t ask for their teammates, their family away from home, to quit on them. They didn’t ask for some of their peers to stop coming to the games when they didn’t like the overall result.

What they DID do was fight. Every day in practice, they gave every bit of themselves that we asked of them as coaches. And what happened because of it was they got better…WE got better. The reason it didn’t show in the win/loss column was by the time we started clicking as a unit, we ran into the toughest competition we would face all year. The last half of our season, we faced 8 (out of 12) teams who have won at least 18 games (out of 26), three of which were nationally ranked at some point in the season.

It did show, in a big way, if you were able to watch the games. We led at halftime in 6 of those 12 games, but our lack of depth usually gave way to mental and physical fatigue, and the sheer talent of the other programs were able to take advantage.

It was because of this fight, that I would not trade this year for spending time with any other program instead of Emory & Henry. I grew close to this group of guys. We were the ones taking our lumps each night, growing closer, when the easy thing to do would be to point fingers and blame others.

The most gratifying thing, to me, is seeing the light click in a player’s mind when he realizes “why” you do the things we ask you to do them, and not just “how” to do them. You get to see them grow as basketball players and learn life lessons through the game. Every one of these guys will face adversity after their careers are over. This is not the last time life will deal them a crippling blow. Chances are, it won’t even be the worst case of adversity they’ll face. What you hope for as a coach, though, is that you’ve given them the tools to stand up and deal with that adversity the same way we dealt with it together this year; to stand up and fight; to never point fingers; to never whine and complain about what is wrong, and change it to make it right.

It’s easy to be on the other side. Winning is all I’ve ever known. I made a plan when I started this whole coaching thing to never associate with a losing program. But this year has made me grow more as a coach (and as a man) than I’ve ever done with anyone else.

I needed to lose. I needed to be humbled.

We did. And I was.

You begin to find out that the only way to fight through adversity is to stop re-stating the problem. You have to come to the table with solutions. Everyone knows the problem. Fans can even recognize the problems. But they aren’t paid to come up with the solutions (thank God). That job is left for the coaches.

As a coach you have to take ownership of the losses, and reflect credit for the wins. You take the hit with the media and the fans when you lose, and when you win, you praise the efforts of the players, and the energy of the fans. It’s just how it is, and I accept that, it’s part of the job. I do find it comical how many “answers” come from people outside the program, and how sure they are their idea will work. I don’t look down on them, it’s not their job to fix our problems. They’re doctors, lawyers, accountants, customer service reps, etc. and I couldn’t do their jobs either. But I did get some funny “fixes”

“Why don’t you teach them to shoot free throws better?”

“You should spend more time on defense”

“You should play zone…no one ever scores on a zone”

“Have you tried scoring more points than the other team?”

Ok, so I made that last one up (or did I?). But sometimes I wonder what the general public thinks coaches do all day. Take naps and fart?¹ It’s my job to spend the 24 hours I have each day thinking of ways to make our program better, just as it is your job to make sure your company is more efficient/productive/better/etc. And I’ve taken the steps throughout my life to learn and study from those who have done it the right way to make certain I’m doing my job, at the very least, as good as you’re doing yours.

Coaches will always have critics though, you can’t run from it. You have to embrace it. I don’t know how many times I’ve been put in a verbal headlock by a fan or parent (or my own family) about how to make my team better, and sometimes they do bring up great points, so you can’t discount them all. I’m always reminded, however, of a quote by Teddy Roosevelt…

“It is not the critic who counts: not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself for a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.”

Don’t be afraid to talk basketball with me (I know…fat chance now, right?). I do enjoy talking basketball at all times of the day. And if you’re particularly bold, I’ll even tell you why it is we do each thing we do and why we prefer that to other methods. Just don’t ever think we sit in the office and throw darts at a wall to come up with a plan. 

I only give you two pieces of advice if you wish to talk about my profession and why we do what we do:

Come with the knowledge that we don't make our decisions lightly. There's long hours of deliberation going into the smallest of decisions.

If you catch me after a loss, may God have mercy on your soul...

I won’t text my own mother back after some losses…ask her…I’m sure she’s reading this (Hi mom! Send $). I take my job seriously, and I treat each loss as a reflection of my abilities or inability to prepare my athletes. I’m not gonna ask anyone to prom on the bus ride home from a loss. (I’m 27…I’m not gonna ask anyone to prom…ever)²

The season is over. It is time to prepare for next year. Gotta get stronger. Gotta get faster. Gotta improve our fundamentals. But one thing we won’t have to teach during the off-season, is how to deal with adversity...

¹ _{– I’ve done both}

² _{– Except Kate Upton…but she isn’t returning my phone calls, texts or tweets… #HerLoss}